In Lebanon, the ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday has reduced oil’s risk premium, sending prices lower but the situation remains fragile. Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel bombed targets in Lebanon. Four Israeli tanks entered a Lebanese border village, Lebanon’s official news agency said on Friday.
However, the Middle East conflict has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more ample in 2025.
The International Energy Agency sees the prospect of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of excess supply, equal to more than 1% of global output.
Following the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, rebel forces launched attacks on northern Syrian cities, including Aleppo, Hama and Idlib. This is the first major attack in Syria since 2020.
The Syrian army, along with its allies Iran and Russia, targeted rebel positions in response to these attacks, and the clashes are still ongoing.
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts at the meeting.
OPEC+ had earlier this year announced plans to start gradually bringing back supply towards the end of the year if the price was right. Since the price has not been right for months, the group has been postponing its supply return.
Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, a Reuters poll of 41 analysts suggests. That marked the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision in the Reuters poll.
Russia, meanwhile, pounded Ukrainian energy infrastructure again, boosting expectations of Western retaliation that could affect Russia’s oil industry.
Last week, oil prices notched their biggest weekly gains since late September after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in what appears to be a warning following strikes by Kyiv on Russia using U.S. and British weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia would keep testing the hypersonic Oreshnik missile it fired at Ukraine with plans to start producing the weapon in large quantities.
Crude oil inventories in the United fell by 5.935 million barrels for the week ending November 15, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a smaller build of 250,000 barrels. According to API data, crude oil inventories have declined by more than 5 million barrels since the beginning of the year.
Asia’s crude oil imports, including those of China, rose in November. In last month, Asia is on track to import 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, slightly higher compared to 26.11 million bpd in October and 26.24 million bpd in September, per the LSEG Oil Research data. China is on track to have boosted its crude oil imports in November—thanks to low oil prices, not high demand.

Although the bitumen market in Asia trended downward this week, it was on the rise in Africa, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean, and the Baltic regions. Export cargoes in Singapore and South Korea saw decreases of $5 and $7, respectively, and were priced at an average of $440/t and $408/t. In North and West Africa, bitumen delivered cargoes rose by $15, reaching average prices of $445/t and $600/t, respectively. With the onset of the rainy season and the suspension of road construction activities in Europe, local bitumen prices in the continent declined. The average price per ton of bitumen in southern Germany and Italy dropped by $10 and $38.5, respectively, to $483 and $423. Export cargoes of bitumen from Iran were also priced at $350 per ton, reflecting a $13 increase.