During the 12-day war that began after Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices briefly rose above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
According to analysts the market has largely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from about a week ago, as focus shifts back to fundamentals.
Four delegates from OPEC+, which includes allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the group is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following a similar increase already planned for July.
Prices were also supported earlier in Friday’s session by several oil inventory reports. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.277 million barrels in the week ending June 20, far exceeding analysts’ more conservative estimate of a 600,000-barrel draw. This follows last week’s surprisingly large 10.133 million-barrel inventory decline.
Additionally, analysts noted that China’s imports of Iranian oil surged in June as shipments ramped up ahead of the Israel-Iran conflict and demand from independent refineries strengthened. China is the world’s largest oil importer and the biggest buyer of Iranian crude. According to ship-tracker Vortexa, it purchased over 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from June 1 to 20 — a record high based on the firm’s data.
While bitumen prices had been rising in Asia, a more recent drop in feedstock values following the Middle East ceasefire helped push down export cargo values from Europe. Export cargoes in Rotterdam and the Baltic fell by $44 and $42 to $472/t and $460/t, respectively.
Meanwhile, Construction activity and bitumen demand continued to rise steadily in Northern and Central Europe during what is typically the seasonal peak period. Domestic prices in southern Germany and Hungary increased by $16 and $12 to $517/t and $519/t, respectively.
Mediterranean bitumen cargo prices dropped sharply to $417/t, driven by declines in crude and fuel oil values following the June 24 Israel-Iran ceasefire that ended 12 days of conflict.
Singapore bitumen prices surged amid fears of tighter supply and on the back of a mid-June rally in feedstock costs triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. Export cargoes in this country rose $10 to $415/t.
Iranian prices also rose to $328/t, in response to the mid-June surge in crude and fuel oil values.