Market attention has shifted firmly toward geopolitical risk in the Middle East following stalled rounds of U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations. Although the prospect of a disruption to Iranian oil supply remains uncertain, traders are increasingly focused on the risk of escalation. Iran’s foreign minister said on Friday that a draft counterproposal could be ready within days after recent nuclear talks, while Trump signaled he was considering limited military strikes. Iran, a major oil producer, is located along the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. Any conflict in the area could restrict supply and push prices higher.
The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude inventories fell by 609,000 barrels in the week ending February 13, following a sharp build of 13.4 million barrels the previous week.
Additional support for oil prices came as the latest peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended without visible progress, reducing expectations that sanctions on Russian oil could be lifted anytime soon.
Rising Chinese imports of Russian crude are more than offsetting reduced spot purchases by India, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
So far in February, shipments of Russian-origin crude arriving at China have averaged 2.09 million barrels per day, up from 1.72 million barrels per day in January and 1.39 million in December.

Iran and Russia are expanding economic and energy cooperation, including potential joint development of another Iranian oilfield, officials from both countries said. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev led a high-level delegation to Tehran this week for talks with Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad on strengthening bilateral energy ties.
Asia is on track to import record volumes of crude oil in February as major buyers increase purchases amid strong refinery activity and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The region is expected to import as much as 28.51 million barrels per day this month, according to data compiled by Kpler and cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. That would exceed imports of 27.48 million barrels per day in December and 26.22 million in January.

The price of export bitumen increased slightly in Europe this week, but decreased or remained stable in Asia.
Adverse weather in northwest Europe and persistent snowfall across central and eastern parts of the continent continued to suppress demand. Export cargo bitumen prices rose in Rotterdam and the Baltic region by $4, reaching $383/t and $376/t, respectively. Prices in Italy and Spain also increased by $4 and $2, settling at $368/t and $363/t.
In the Mediterranean, export prices also increased by $4 to $367/t.
Seaborne prices from Singapore and Thailand held steady at $360/t amid limited trading activity, as holiday-related slowdowns in Asia kept market participation subdued.
In South Korea, export flows continued at a normal pace, although several refiners are expected to undergo maintenance turnarounds between March and April.
South Korean export bitumen reached an average price of $368/t, a decrease of $5.
Export prices from Iran extended their decline, pressured by weak buying interest and ongoing concerns over sanctions imposed by the United States and reached $301/t.