Expected increases in OPEC+ oil production, along with the growing likelihood of an Iranian nuclear agreement, have revived bearish sentiment. In the near term, with geopolitical tensions easing, strong seasonal travel demand will be necessary in the coming months to offset the anticipated rise in supply. Analysts believe that a nuclear deal lifting sanctions would enable Iran to increase oil production, potentially adding around 400,000 barrels per day to global supply.
Investor sentiment was boosted this week after the U.S. and China — the world’s two largest oil consumers and economies — agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war, during which both sides committed to significantly reducing trade tariffs. The hefty reciprocal tariffs had sparked concerns about a significant hit to global economic growth and oil demand. Ongoing uncertainty over long-term trade policy will cap further price gains.
Limiting potential supply increases, Kyiv and Moscow failed to reach a ceasefire agreement during their first direct talks in over three years, as Russia presented conditions that a Ukrainian source described as ‘non-starters’.
Tensions continue in the Middle East. Israel, in addition to escalating attacks on the Gaza Strip, struck Yemen’s Red Sea ports of Hodeidah and Salif on Friday.
The number of active oil rigs fell by one to 473 this week — the lowest level since January — according to energy services firm Baker Hughes in its closely watched report on Friday.
The U.S. dollar rose on Friday after the latest batch of economic data showed a sharp increase in import prices, while consumer sentiment remained subdued — putting the currency on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Bitumen cargo prices in Northern Europe and Mediterranean rose, driven by sizeable gains in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices, while numerous European truck prices slipped in a delayed response to earlier declines in crude and fuel oil markets.
In the Mediterranean and Rotterdam regions, export bitumen prices increased by $21 and $19, reaching $399/t and $443/t, respectively while domestic prices in the Antwerp and southern German areas fell to an average of $536/t and $543/t, respectively.
In Asia, Demand for bitumen across remained subdued except for Vietnam. Singapore bitumen prices fell by $4/t to $398/t. In Korea, prices remained stable at around $386/t.
While Iranian bulk bitumen prices remained stable ($343/t), export prices for Iranian barrels rose amid higher feedstock costs and limited trading activity.
Some suppliers raised their offers, supported by rising vacuum bottom (VB) feedstock costs and a stronger rial against the US dollar.