The world’s largest group of oil producers, OPEC+, held firm on Saturday, announcing another substantial production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, aiming to reclaim market share and discipline over-producers.
The potential OPEC+ output hike comes amid a widening global surplus, which has reached 2.2 million bpd. This imbalance will likely require a price adjustment to trigger a supply-side response and help restore market equilibrium.
Trump reignited the trade war with China by claiming that Beijing had violated its recent trade agreement with the United States. According to CBS News, Trump announced that China has violated its recent trade agreement with the United States. The agreement, reached on May 12, reduced mutual tariffs for a period of 90 days. These remarks also put pressure on crude oil prices. A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily reinstated Trump’s tariffs, overturning a trade court’s decision made just a day earlier to immediately block the sweeping duties.
U.S. crude oil production surged to an all-time high in March, reaching 13.488 million barrels per day, according to newly released monthly data from the EIA. This surpasses the previous monthly record of 13.450 million bpd set in October 2024, and marks an increase from 13.153 million bpd in February.
For the first time since September 2023, the number of oil and natural gas rigs has declined for the fifth consecutive week. Oil rigs fell by four to 461 this week, their lowest since November 2021, the company said.
The United States continues to pressure Chinese companies to prevent the sale of Iranian oil to them. China is Iran’s largest oil customer, with the country’s private refiners purchasing the bulk of Iran’s sanctioned crude. The two countries have established a mutually beneficial trade relationship. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country can withstand the impact of sanctions even if no agreement is reached. Nonetheless, Trump stated that he believes they are close to reaching a deal with Iran. If a deal is concluded, the U.S. is expected to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, potentially increasing global flows of Iranian crude and putting downward pressure on prices.
Bitumen prices declined a slight in most parts of the world. Mediterranean bitumen cargo prices fell by about $7.5, reaching $394/t, while fuel oil differentials held steady, as regional demand remained below typical seasonal levels.
The export cargo prices in the Baltic, Italy, and Spain also dropped by approximately $2, $7, and $8 respectively, reaching average prices of $434/t, $402/t, and $409/t.
Bitumen export prices fell by $1 to $395/t in Singapore amid relatively weak demand and ample supply.
Unlike other parts of East Asia, rising demand in South Korea drove up the price of its bitumen cargoes by $11, reaching $402/t.
The price of delivered cargoes in East Africa remained unchanged from the previous week at $499/t.
Iranian bulk bitumen prices continued to decline, despite firmer vacuum bottom (VB) feedstock costs, as buying interest remained weak. Iran’s bulk export bitumen was traded at $337/t, marking a $4 decrease.