Production increases from OPEC, additional output gains in North and South America, and the easing of geopolitical risks following the Gaza ceasefire agreement “are all factors that add to the downward pressure sparked by Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on China.”
A smaller-than-expected output hike for November, agreed by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday, eased some concerns about oversupply. The group decided to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November, a move seen by markets as a cautious step amid ongoing fears of excess supply. This relatively modest increase followed the group’s rejection of rumors suggesting a potential 500,000 bpd boost.
Trump took to social media to criticize what he described as China’s attempt to hold the global economy hostage, after Beijing sharply expanded its export controls on rare earth elements on Thursday. China dominates the global market for these materials, which are vital for technology manufacturing. In addition to threatening to cancel his meeting with Xi, Trump warned that he might impose a substantial increase in tariffs on Chinese goods.
Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday as the first phase of Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, approved by Israel’s government on Friday, hostilities will stop, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will release all remaining hostages taken during the attack that sparked the conflict, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. The Gaza ceasefire shifts attention back to the looming oil surplus, as OPEC moves ahead with the gradual rollback of its production cuts.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3. This comes after three consecutive weeks of declines, including a 3.674 million-barrel draw in the previous week ending September 26. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an increase in fuel demand for the week ending October 3, reaching 21.99 million barrels per day — the highest level since late 2022 — indicating that demand remains strong in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Bitumen cargo prices rose in Europe but demand remains sluggish. In Rotterdam and the Baltic region, export cargoes increase by $4 to $413/t and $410/t respectively. In Italy and Spain, prices also rose by $13, settling at $397/t and $399/t, respectively.
Mediterranean cargo prices climbed to $384/t, although some bitumen premiums came under downward pressure relative to regional high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) values.

Bitumen outright values for cargo flows to North and West Africa rose to $426/t and $572/t, respectively.

Bitumen prices in Asia fell again as abundant supply and weak demand continued to drive offers lower.Singapore’s bitumen export prices slipped to $400/t, as Southeast Asian demand struggled to keep pace with abundant supplies from both regional and external sources.In South Korea, export bitumen prices edged down by $6 to $389/t. The price of Iran’s bulk export bitumen also declined, reaching $265/t.