Trump and Putin agreed on Thursday to another summit on the war in Ukraine, to be held in the next two weeks in Hungary. This comes as Washington continues to pressure India and China to stop buying Russian oil.
President Trump stated that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt purchases of Russian crude oil—a step that could shrink buyers’ profit margins and ease concerns about an oversupplied market. However, traders will be watching the import figures closely for confirmation.
This week’s decline was also partly driven by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which heightened concerns over an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels last week to 423.8 million barrels. The larger-than-expected build was mainly attributed to reduced refinery utilization as plants entered autumn maintenance turnarounds. The data also showed that U.S. crude production climbed to a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have reduced crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels per day, leading to domestic fuel shortages and lower product exports. According to the agency’s monthly report, Russian revenues from crude oil and petroleum products fell to $13.35 billion in September from $13.58 billion in August.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Monday, total OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 43.05 million bpd in September 2025, up 630,000 bpd from the previous month, based on estimates from OPEC’s secondary sources.
Bank of America has recently added its voice to bearish forecasts, warning that rising U.S.–China tensions, combined with steady OPEC+ production, could drive Brent crude below $50 per barrel under certain downside scenarios.

Cargo prices declined across northern and central Europe as ample supply continued to meet demand during a still-subdued autumn paving season, while activity began to slow in parts of the Nordics.
In Rotterdam and the Baltic region, export cargoes fell by $15 to $398/t and $395/t respectively. In Italy and Spain, prices also dropped by $12, settling at $385/t and $388/t, respectively.
Cargo prices in Mediterranean fell by $11 to $373/t as a sharp crude futures drop saw Mediterranean high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) values also fall significantly.
Delivered Cargo values into west, north and east Africa slipped to $562/t, $415/t and $467/t.
Singapore’s bitumen export prices remained largely steady at $400 per ton, as spot liquidity increased with deals concluded in Indonesia.
Export bitumen cargo prices in Thailand fell by $2 to $403 per ton. In South Korea, prices fell to $371 per ton, marking an $18 decline.
Iran’s bulk seaborne bitumen prices remained steady, as weak demand from South Asia and abundant supply prevented any price increases.