The market is now focused on this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and discussions regarding its output policy. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies have significantly increased supply risks, which could prompt OPEC+ to agree on another 137,000-barrel-per-day production increase for December. Such a move, combined with rising non-OPEC supply, would likely continue to put downward pressure on oil prices.
However, OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward a modest output increase in December, sources familiar with the discussions said ahead of the group’s meeting on Sunday. Most OPEC+ members, aside from Saudi Arabia, have limited capacity to raise production significantly.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, may cut its December crude prices for Asian buyers to multi-month lows, signaling a bearish outlook. According to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative, Saudi crude exports reached a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day in August.
Despite Donald Trump’s denial on social media, the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Venezuela has increased. If an attack occurs over the weekend, prices are expected to surge on Monday. The U.S. has deployed a task force centered around its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, off the coast of Venezuela—far exceeding the requirements for targeting drug traffickers in small boats, which has been the stated focus of recent U.S. naval operations in the Caribbean.
Preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar hovered near three-month highs against major currencies, making dollar-denominated commodities like oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

The prospect of China agreeing to purchase more U.S. energy should have supported prices, but that impact was offset by data showing that China’s factory activity contracted in October more than analysts had anticipated, falling to its lowest level in six months.

European export bitumen prices posted an increase this week, supported by steady demand from North Africa. In Rotterdam and the Baltic region, export cargoes increase by $6 to $407/t and $402/t respectively. In Italy and Spain, prices also rose by $6, settling at $399/t and $402/t, respectively.
Mediterranean bitumen cargo prices rose to $387/t in line with an increase in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) during the week.
Cargo activity remained strong into North Africa, with vessels arriving in Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco.
Cargo prices into North and West Africa increased to $430/t and $576/t, supported by a weekly rise in crude and fuel oil values.
However, in East Africa, delivered cargo prices fell by $5 to $460 per ton.
Singapore bitumen prices edged lower $397/t as Southeast Asian demand showed no signs of improvement while in South Korea, these cargoes rose by $7 to $370/t due to higher demand.
Iranian bitumen prices also down to $263/t amid stable to lower vacuum bottom (VB) feedstock values.