A Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — one of the country’s most important oil export hubs — reignited fears of supply disruptions. Following the attack, the port halted oil exports amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day, roughly 2% of global supply, and Russia’s pipeline operator Transneft suspended crude flows to the terminal.
Investors are also monitoring how Western sanctions are affecting Russian oil supplies and trade flows. Russia’s output is facing additional pressure from renewed U.S. sanctions — including fresh restrictions on oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil that took effect on Nov. 21 — which prohibit transactions with the companies as Washington intensifies its pressure on Moscow.
The broader outlook for the oil market remains bearish, with U.S. crude stockpiles rising and several forecasts pointing to a significant oversupply in 2026. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.3-million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending November 7, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1.7-million-barrel increase.
Donald Trump signed legislation on Wednesday officially ending the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history.
For oil markets, the move brings some relief, as the shutdown had been weighing on demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming economy by slowing federal operations, disrupting travel, and delaying key data releases. With the government now reopening, fuel consumption could bounce back, particularly in aviation and ground transport ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
OPEC confirmed in its latest monthly report on the 2026 supply–demand outlook that the organization has now acknowledged the possibility of an oversupply next year, marking a shift from its previously more optimistic stance. According to the report, a supply surplus is expected in 2026 as eight OPEC+ member countries continue to unwind their voluntary production cuts.
Bitumen Cargo outright prices eased in northwest Europe. In Rotterdam and the Baltic, export bitumen cargoes fell by $8 and $11, settling at $384/t and $377/t, respectively. In Italy and Spain, cargoes were assessed at $374/t and $377/t, respectively.
Mediterranean cargo prices also fell by $11 to $371/t.
Bitumen prices fell from Asia, with plentiful availability and slow demand leading to lower offer levels. In Singapore ,Thailand and South_Korea the average export bitumen prices were down to $392/t, $395 and $356/t, respectively.
Iranian bulk seaborne prices rose to $275/t due to limited supply, Import demand growth, and higer feedstock values.