One of the key drivers in the oil market is the growing likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting, which could support economic growth and strengthen energy demand.
Recent inflation data indicates that consumer spending in September rose only modestly, signaling a slowdown in U.S. economic activity toward the end of the third quarter. Markets are now pricing in roughly an 87% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points.
Beyond financial factors, political developments have also played a role in shaping oil prices. High-level trade talks between China and the United States aimed at resolving ongoing disputes — along with Donald Trump’s comments about active negotiations with leaders of Mexico and Canada on the sidelines of the World Cup draw — could ease tensions and support the global economic outlook, potentially boosting energy demand.
On the geopolitical front, the market continues to monitor developments surrounding oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela. Ongoing sanctions and export restrictions on both countries have fueled uncertainty about future output. Any disruption in production or exports from these major suppliers could exert additional upward pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.48 million barrels in the week ending November 28, following a draw of 1.9 million barrels in the previous week.
Bitumen prices fell across Europe for both domestic truck deliveries and cargo exports as demand weakened, although Mediterranean values remained better supported due to tight supply.
In Rotterdam and the Baltic, export bitumen cargoes dropped $4 and $2, settling at $347/t and $342/t, respectively.
The Mediterranean bitumen market remained balanced to tight—unusually for the start of the winter slowdown— as supply constraints and strong cargo demand into North African and Black Sea markets kept most cargo differentials stable. Mediterranean bitumen cargo prices fell by $3, to $344/t. In Italy and Spain, cargoes were assessed at $347/t.
In Asia, bitumen prices in Singapore and South Korea continued to decline amid softening demand. With weaker regional buying interest, some suppliers in Singapore lowered their offers for December-loading seaborne cargoes, bringing the average price to $368/t.
In Thailand, and South Korea, average export bitumen prices fell by $2, and $3, reaching $368/t, and $342/t, respectively.
Iranian bulk bitumen prices continued to rise, reaching $310/t, supported by tight cargo availability and growing demand.